↗ proofcast

Predictions are cheap. Proof is not.

The forecasting intelligence & cryptographic accountability layer built natively for Somnia DreamDEX Event Contracts.

  ┌──────────────┐     ┌──────────────┐     ┌──────────────┐     ┌──────────────┐     ┌──────────────┐
  │  01. OBSERVE │ ──> │02. UNDERSTAND│ ──> │  03. COMMIT  │ ──> │  04. ANCHOR  │ ──> │  05. PROVE   │
  │   DreamDEX   │     │  EventForge  │     │   EIP-712    │     │Somnia Anchor │     │ Brier Scores │
  └──────────────┘     └──────────────┘     └──────────────┘     └──────────────┘     └──────────────┘

---

1. Executive Summary

Prediction markets reflect what the crowd prices. However, crowd consensus is frequently warped by speculative hype, social media echo chambers, and hindsight bias. Traders delete losing forecasts, models claim high accuracy without verifiable records, and market participants fail to preserve why they held a belief before an outcome was decided.

ProofCast is the native decision intelligence and cryptographic verification layer for Somnia DreamDEX Event Contracts.

Core Architecture Highlights

1. Live DreamDEX Ingestion: Direct integration with Somnia binary event pools and order-book depth via @somnia-chain/markets-sdk.
2. EventForge Dual-Layer AI: Deterministic order-book microstructure calculations coupled with real-time multi-model AI reasoning (Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Meta-Ensemble).
3. EIP-712 Decision Receipts: Forecasters freeze their probability, confidence, thesis, and counter-thesis into a signed SHA-256 cryptographic digest before outcome settlement.
4. Somnia Smart Contract Anchoring & Staking: Immutable on-chain anchoring via ProofCastAnchor.sol on Somnia Shannon Testnet, with optional native STT conviction staking, verified server-side against the mined transaction.
5. Automated On-Chain Resolution & Brier Calibration: Background daemons monitor on-chain settlements, auto-resolve receipts, and calculate empirical Brier calibration scores ($BS \in [0, 1]$), registering verified Soulbound Reputation Badges on-chain.

---

2. The 7-Step Verified Lifecycle

ProofCast converts market noise into immutable decision intelligence across 7 deterministic phases:

$$\mathbf{OBSERVE} \longrightarrow \mathbf{UNDERSTAND} \longrightarrow \mathbf{CHALLENGE} \longrightarrow \mathbf{COMMIT} \longrightarrow \mathbf{ANCHOR} \longrightarrow \mathbf{RESOLVE} \longrightarrow \mathbf{PROVE}$$

flowchart LR
  subgraph Phase1 [1. Intelligence]
    A[01. Observe: DreamDEX Signals] --> B[02. Understand: EventForge AI]
    B --> C[03. Challenge: Counter-Thesis]
  end

  subgraph Phase2 [2. Commitment]
    C --> D[04. Commit: EIP-712 Receipt]
    D --> E[05. Anchor: Somnia Smart Contract]
  end

  subgraph Phase3 [3. Accountability]
    E --> F[06. Resolve: Automated Settlement]
    F --> G[07. Prove: Brier Calibration]
  end

  style Phase1 fill:#0f172a,stroke:#38bdf8,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
  style Phase2 fill:#0f172a,stroke:#c8f06a,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
  style Phase3 fill:#0f172a,stroke:#a855f7,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff

Loading

Step	Phase	Description	Implementation Mechanism
01. OBSERVE	Market Discovery	Live ingestion of Somnia DreamDEX binary event markets, order books, and depth levels.	@somnia-chain/markets-sdk
02. UNDERSTAND	Multi-Model AI	Deterministic microstructure fair value + LLM Bull/Bear reasoning.	EventForge Multi-Model Engine
03. CHALLENGE	Stress-Test Edge	Force forecasters to articulate counter-theses and calculate net executable edge.	True Executable Edge Algorithm
04. COMMIT	Sign Receipt	User cryptographically signs forecast probability, thesis, and evidence before settlement.	EIP-712 Typed Data + SHA-256 Digest
05. ANCHOR	Somnia On-Chain	Anchor hash on Somnia Shannon Testnet; optional payable native STT staking.	ProofCastAnchor.sol Smart Contract
06. RESOLVE	Auto-Settlement	Background daemon detects DreamDEX contract settlement & oracle webhooks.	resolutionWorker.ts / Oracle Webhook
07. PROVE	Reputation & Calibration	Mathematical Brier calibration, lead-time bonuses, and on-chain Soulbound Badges.	Brier Scoring Engine + SBT Badges

---

3. Somnia & DreamDEX Integration

ProofCast is engineered natively around the technical architecture of the Somnia High-Performance L1 Blockchain (Chain ID: 50312) and the DreamDEX Prediction Market Protocol:

 ┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
 │                              SOMNIA BLOCKCHAIN ECOSYSTEM                               │
 ├──────────────────────────────────────────┬─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
 │          DreamDEX Protocol               │             ProofCast Protocol              │
 │  • High-Throughput Binary Event Markets  │  • Multi-Model AI Decision Engine           │
 │  • On-Chain CLOB Order Book Depth        │  • Cryptographic EIP-712 Decision Receipts  │
 │  • ERC-6909 Multi-Token Outcome Shares   │  • Immutable Somnia Smart Contract Anchor   │
 │  • Automated Contract Payout Vectors     │  • Native STT Staking & Conviction Pool      │
 │  • Official @somnia-chain/markets-sdk    │  • Soulbound On-Chain Reputation Badges     │
 └──────────────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────────────────┘

• Sub-Second Finality & Low Gas: Enables high-frequency receipt anchoring and automated resolution without prohibitive overhead.
• On-Chain Microstructure: Real order-book bid/ask levels from DreamDEX feed directly into EventForge's deterministic fair-value engine.
• Zero Private Key Custody: ProofCast never takes custody of private keys; all transactions and typed commitments are signed in the user's browser wallet.

---

4. System Capabilities

4.1 Live DreamDEX Discovery & Telemetry

• Direct querying via @somnia-chain/markets-sdk reading Somnia DreamDEX binary event pools.
• Microstructure telemetry: real-time bid/ask spreads, midpoints, book depth, and expiry countdowns.
• Explicit telemetry states (LIVE, STALE, UNAVAILABLE, ERROR) backed by an in-memory 5-second TTL cache.

4.2 EventForge Dual-Layer AI & SSE Streaming

• Layer A (Deterministic Microstructure Engine): Pure mathematical model computing fair value from order-book depth imbalance, spread penalty, and time decay. Output is 100% deterministic: identical market inputs yield identical probability outputs.
• Layer B (Multi-Model AI Reasoning): Structured reasoning generating Bull Case, Bear Case, Key Risks, and Disagreement Analysis across Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, and Meta-Ensemble. Live provider calls require the corresponding API keys; without them each model falls back to a built-in analytical engine and reports itself as BUILTIN_ANALYTICAL rather than REAL_LLM, which the UI surfaces per model.
• Server-Sent Events (SSE): Mounted at GET /api/eventforge/stream for live token streaming.
• Strict Invariant: AI models cannot alter numerical probabilities, fabricate order books, or mutate market prices.

4.3 Triangulated Comparison & True Executable Edge

• Triangulated Comparison: Real-time comparison between Market Price, EventForge Fair Value, and User Forecast.
• Market Quality Classification: Categorizes market conditions into TRADEABLE, WATCH, or NO_TRADE.
• True Executable Edge: Calculates net edge after accounting for spread crossing and execution friction.

4.4 Cryptographic EIP-712 Receipts & Evidence Hashing

• EIP-712 Typed Signing: Standardized typed data verification (domain: { name: "ProofCast", chainId: 50312 }, primary type: ForecastCommitment) verified via viem.
• SHA-256 Commitment Digest: At commit time the server freezes the market evidence (mid, best bid, best ask, snapshot timestamp) together with the probability, direction, confidence, thesis, counter-thesis, and signer into an immutable 32-byte digest, stored as decision_receipts.commitmentHash.
• Pre-Settlement Anchoring: The commitment digest — not the post-resolution evidence hash — is the value anchored on Somnia. Because it is computed before the outcome is known, the anchor proves what was believed prior to settlement, which is the entire claim the product rests on.
• Parent-Linked Revisions: Historical forecasts are never overwritten; updates create parent-linked forecast_revisions. The anchored digest continues to represent the original commitment.

4.5 Somnia Smart Contract (ProofCastAnchor.sol) & Staking

• Non-Custodial Anchoring: Stores (receiptHash, marketId, timestamp, owner, stakeAmount).
• Payable STT Staking: anchorReceiptWithStake() lets forecasters stake native Somnia tokens behind high-conviction predictions. The stake amount is chosen when the forecast is committed and is transferred on-chain at anchor time.
• Server-Verified Stakes: A client-reported transaction hash is only a claim. The server re-reads the mined transaction from a Somnia RPC and confirms it succeeded, targeted the anchor contract, and came from the claiming address. The recorded stake is always the value observed on-chain, never the amount requested — an intended-but-unpaid stake stays at NONE and is never settled.
• Soulbound Forecaster Badges: Registers verified reputation tiers (GOLD_MASTER, SILVER, BRONZE, UNRANKED) directly on-chain.

4.6 Automated Resolution Worker & Oracle Webhooks

• Automated Daemon Worker: server/resolutionWorker.ts polls on-chain DreamDEX settlement status every 60 seconds without manual bottlenecks.
• Oracle Webhook: POST /api/oracle/resolve enables sub-second settlement for UMA / Chainlink oracles. The endpoint fails closed: without ORACLE_WEBHOOK_SECRET configured it returns 503 rather than accepting anonymous settlement.
• Conclusive Settlements Only: A binary pool settles at >= 99% (YES) or <= 1% (NO). Any price in between means the market expired without a conclusive print and is recorded VOID, which is excluded from calibration scoring. Outcomes are never guessed.
• Automated Stake Resolution: Transitions on-chain-verified stakes to WON, LOST, or REFUNDED.

4.7 Brier Calibration & Soulbound Reputation Tiers

• Strict Brier Scoring: Dimensionless $BS = (f - o)^2 \in [0, 1]$, where $0.000$ represents perfection.
• Lead-Time Logarithmic Weighting: Skill bonus for early commitments ($w = 1 + \ln(1 + \Delta t / 86400)$).
• 5-Bin Empirical Calibration: Evaluates reliability across $[0-20%]$, $[20-40%]$, $[40-60%]$, $[60-80%]$, $[80-100%]$.
• Reputation Tier Matrix:

  Tier	Title	Minimum Requirements
  Gold Master	Gold Master Oracle	$\ge 30$ verified receipts, $BS \le 0.12$, Accuracy $\ge 70%$
  Silver	Silver Superforecaster	$\ge 15$ verified receipts, $BS \le 0.18$, Accuracy $\ge 60%$
  Bronze	Bronze Forecaster	$\ge 5$ verified receipts, $BS \le 0.25$, Accuracy $\ge 50%$
  Unranked	Unranked Apprentice	$< 5$ verified receipts

4.8 Executive Web3 Terminal & Audit Suite

• Tactile 1-Click Theme Engine: Seamless toggle between sleek Cyberpunk Dark Mode and high-legibility Light Mode without disruptive text labels.
• 3-Stage Illuminated Decision Loop: High-visibility real-time pipeline (01 Observe, 02 Commit, 03 Prove) linked to Somnia telemetry.
• Architectural Decision Hygiene Suite: Centers live order-book discovery, EventForge multi-model edge calculations, and cryptographic SHA-256 seal inspection.
• Proof Profile & Calibration Suite:
  • Real-time on-chain reputation progress tracker with progression to Gold Master / Silver / Bronze tiers.
  • Dual-view ledger terminal with instant multi-attribute search across local receipts and network-wide verified proofs.
  • Interactive 5-bin empirical reliability grid mapping predicted probabilities against observed market settlements.
  • One-click Somnia Shannon transaction explorer inspection and CSV export for independent audit.

---

5. System Architecture

graph TD
  subgraph Client [Client Layer: React 19 / Vite]
    Landing[Landing Page & Live Telemetry]
    Signal[Signal Room & Market Discovery]
    Decision[Market Decision Workspace]
    Profile[Proof Profile & Receipt Archive]
    Leaderboard[Leaderboard & SBT Badges]
  end

  subgraph Server [Server Layer: Express / tRPC / Node 22]
    TRPC[tRPC API Router]
    DreamDEXService[DreamDEX Snapshot Service]
    EventForgeEngine[EventForge Multi-Model AI]
    SSEHandler[SSE Token Stream /api/eventforge/stream]
    WorkerDaemon[Automated Resolution Worker]
    OracleWebhook[Oracle Webhook /api/oracle/resolve]
    ScoringEngine[Brier Scoring & Calibration Engine]
  end

  subgraph Somnia [Somnia Shannon Testnet: Chain 50312]
    DreamDEXContracts[DreamDEX Binary Event Contracts]
    AnchorContract[ProofCastAnchor.sol Smart Contract]
  end

  subgraph Database [Database: Drizzle ORM / MySQL]
    DBSnapshots[(market_snapshots)]
    DBForecasts[(forecasts)]
    DBReceipts[(decision_receipts)]
    DBRevisions[(forecast_revisions)]
    DBResolutions[(receipt_resolutions)]
  end

  Signal --> TRPC
  Decision --> TRPC
  Decision --> SSEHandler
  Profile --> TRPC
  Leaderboard --> TRPC
  TRPC --> DreamDEXService
  TRPC --> EventForgeEngine
  TRPC --> ScoringEngine
  TRPC --> DBSnapshots
  TRPC --> DBForecasts
  TRPC --> DBReceipts

  DreamDEXService --> DreamDEXContracts
  WorkerDaemon --> DreamDEXContracts
  WorkerDaemon --> DBResolutions
  OracleWebhook --> DBResolutions

  Decision -. User Staking .-> AnchorContract
  Profile -. Verify Anchor .-> AnchorContract

Loading

---

6. Somnia Shannon Smart Contract Specification

• Contract File: contracts/ProofCastAnchor.sol
• Deployed Address: 0xe7da3a86ab86c3b5a09c992367083f1cec62d18e
• Deployment Tx: 0x9f85fdde97a1149000f0ae4230daea2908c1d123701ff20c393d85a6b1031e46
• Solidity Version: ^0.8.20
• Target Network: Somnia Shannon Testnet (Chain ID: 50312)
• Currency: Native STT

Core Smart Contract Interfaces

// Anchor a cryptographic decision receipt hash
function anchorReceipt(bytes32 receiptHash, string calldata marketId) external;

// Anchor a decision receipt with a payable native STT stake
function anchorReceiptWithStake(bytes32 receiptHash, string calldata marketId) external payable;

// Record a verified forecaster soulbound reputation badge (admin only)
function recordForecasterBadge(
    address forecaster,
    uint8 tier,
    uint256 brierScoreBps,
    uint256 verifiedCount
) external;

// Verify whether a receipt hash has been anchored
function verifyAnchor(bytes32 receiptHash) external view returns (
    bool isAnchored,
    string memory marketId,
    uint256 timestamp,
    address owner,
    uint256 stakeAmount
);

// Retrieve a forecaster's soulbound badge
function getForecasterBadge(address forecaster) external view returns (
    uint8 tier,
    uint256 brierScoreBps,
    uint256 verifiedCount,
    uint256 updatedAt
);

---

7. Quickstart & Deployment Guide

Prerequisites

• Node.js: v22.x or higher
• Package Manager: pnpm (or npm)

1. Installation

# Clone repository
git clone https://github.com/0xaje/ProofCast.git
cd ProofCast

# Enable Corepack & Install dependencies
corepack enable
pnpm install

2. Running Locally

# Start development server
pnpm dev

The application will be accessible at http://localhost:3000.

3. Smart Contract Compilation & Deployment

# Compile ProofCastAnchor.sol
npm run contracts:compile

# Deploy to Somnia Shannon Testnet
SOMNIA_DEPLOYER_PRIVATE_KEY=0x... npm run contracts:deploy

4. Running Test Suite & Quality Gates

# Run full Vitest test suite
pnpm test

# Run strict TypeScript typechecking
pnpm check

# Run production bundle build
pnpm build

---

8. Test Verification & Health Summary

 RUN  v2.1.9 /home/oyeolorun/ProofCast

 ✓ server/auth.logout.test.ts (1 test)
 ✓ server/dreamdex.test.ts (3 tests)
 ✓ server/eventforge.multimodel.test.ts (5 tests)
 ✓ server/eventforge.test.ts (7 tests)
 ✓ server/integrity.test.ts (18 tests)
 ✓ server/oracle.staking.test.ts (5 tests)
 ✓ server/receipts.test.ts (16 tests)
 ✓ server/scoring.api.test.ts (1 test)
 ✓ server/scoring.integration.test.ts (1 test)
 ✓ client/src/lib/comparisonMotion.test.ts (3 tests)

 Test Files  10 passed (10)
      Tests  60 passed (60)
 TypeScript  0 diagnostics (tsc --noEmit clean)
 Production  Clean bundle build successful

---

9. Security & Trust Model

Security Dimension	Enforcement Mechanism
Zero Private Key Custody	All transactions and EIP-712 hashes are signed in the browser wallet via RainbowKit / Viem. The server never handles private keys.
Model Invariance	Layer A deterministic calculations are mathematically isolated from LLM output. AI cannot modify probabilities or prices.
Cryptographic Immutability	Commitments produce a SHA-256 digest anchored permanently to ProofCastAnchor.sol on Somnia.
Webhook Authentication	POST /api/oracle/resolve requires a valid ORACLE_WEBHOOK_SECRET. The endpoint fails closed — if no secret is configured it returns 503 rather than accepting anonymous settlement.
Verified On-Chain Anchors	A client-reported anchor transaction is re-read from a Somnia RPC before anything is recorded: it must have succeeded, targeted the anchor contract, been sent by the claiming address, and its calldata must contain exactly this receipt's commitment digest. Stakes are credited from the value observed on-chain, never from the client's request.
No Fabricated Outcomes	Receipts resolve only on a conclusive binary settlement print (>= 99% YES / <= 1% NO). Inconclusive expiries are recorded VOID and excluded from calibration scoring.
Duplicate Prevention	ProofCastAnchor.sol reverts with AlreadyAnchored on replay attempts for previously anchored receipt hashes.

---

10. Hackathon Submission & Resources

• Live Submission Guide: SUBMISSION_DEMO_GUIDE.md
• System Audit: LIVE_SYSTEM_VERIFICATION.md
• Smart Contract: contracts/ProofCastAnchor.sol
• Somnia Explorer: shannon-explorer.somnia.network

---

11. License

ProofCast is open-source software licensed under the MIT License.