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Merged
PowerMaxZ merged 1 commit into from
Jul 14, 2026
Merged

Add route_error state-metrics scenario (model-error routing) #7

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224 changes: 87 additions & 137 deletions evaluation/state_metrics/EXPERIMENT_SCENARIOS.md
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516 changes: 173 additions & 343 deletions evaluation/state_metrics/PAPER_SCENARIOS.md
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14 changes: 14 additions & 0 deletions evaluation/state_metrics/datasets.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -39,6 +39,20 @@ class DatasetSpec:
remove_from_profile="Worker",
default_levels=(0, 1, 2, 3),
),
# Model-error routing synthetic (scenario #3): a chain of case_type-driven
# XOR splits with LENGTH-ASYMMETRIC branches (long A-branch chain vs short
# single-activity B-branch), separated by common activities. The base model
# routes CORRECTLY (red->long, blue->short); the `route_error` perturbation
# inverts the routing on the first `level` gateways. Generated by
# tools/generate_route_error.py. `remove_from_profile` points at its single
# pool so the resources/duration families still work for sanity baselines.
"synthetic_route_error": DatasetSpec(
name="synthetic_route_error",
bpmn=REPO_ROOT / "samples" / "dev-samples" / "synthetic_route_error.bpmn",
params=REPO_ROOT / "samples" / "dev-samples" / "synthetic_route_error.json",
remove_from_profile="Worker",
default_levels=(0, 1, 2, 3),
),
# Parallel-automation synthetic (scenario #2): an AND block with a long
# critical branch and a short non-critical chain on a SEPARATE pool.
# Generated by tools/generate_parallel_auto.py. The non-critical tasks
Expand Down
73 changes: 73 additions & 0 deletions evaluation/state_metrics/perturb.py
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Expand Up @@ -642,6 +642,79 @@ def _is_split(entry: dict) -> bool:
}


def build_route_error_params(
base_json_path: str | Path,
*,
n_gateways_inverted: int,
out_json_path: str | Path,
) -> dict:
"""Invert the ``case_type`` routing on the first ``n_gateways_inverted``
XOR splits — the *model error* for scenario #3.

Designed for the *route-error* synthetic (see
``tools/generate_route_error.py``), whose base params already route
CORRECTLY by case_type at every split gateway: the ``_a`` (long) branch is
bound to ``rule_red`` and the ``_b`` (short) branch to ``rule_blue`` via
``condition_id``. This builder rewrites the first ``n_gateways_inverted``
split gateways (ordered by gateway id) to **swap** those bindings — the
``_a`` branch now fires on ``rule_blue`` and the ``_b`` branch on
``rule_red`` — so red cases take the short branch and blue cases the long
branch at those gateways.

Because the population is 50/50 red/blue, each gateway's path marginal stays
50/50, so cycle time, the 2-gram distribution and the aggregate
relative-event-distribution are all unchanged; only each case's *own* path
(paired by case_id) flips. ``n_gateways_inverted == 0`` is a no-op (copies
the base params verbatim).

Returns a manifest listing which gateways were inverted.
"""
if n_gateways_inverted < 0:
raise ValueError("n_gateways_inverted must be >= 0")
params = _load_params(base_json_path)

# A "split" gateway here is any branching entry with exactly two paths whose
# ids end in _a / _b — the convention emitted by the route-error generator.
def _is_split(entry: dict) -> bool:
ids = [p["path_id"] for p in entry.get("probabilities", [])]
return len(ids) == 2 and any(i.endswith("_a") for i in ids) and any(
i.endswith("_b") for i in ids
)

splits = sorted(
(e for e in params.get("gateway_branching_probabilities", []) if _is_split(e)),
key=lambda e: e["gateway_id"],
)
if n_gateways_inverted > len(splits):
raise ValueError(
f"requested {n_gateways_inverted} inverted gateways but only "
f"{len(splits)} split gateways exist"
)

inverted: list[str] = []
for entry in splits[:n_gateways_inverted]:
for p in entry["probabilities"]:
# Swap the rule so the long (_a) branch fires on blue and the short
# (_b) branch on red — the inverse of the correct base routing.
if "condition_id" not in p:
raise ValueError(
f"gateway {entry['gateway_id']!r} path {p['path_id']!r} has no "
"condition_id; base params must route by case_type "
"(generate_route_error bakes this in)"
)
p["condition_id"] = (
"rule_blue" if p["path_id"].endswith("_a") else "rule_red"
)
inverted.append(entry["gateway_id"])

_write_params(params, out_json_path)
return {
"n_gateways_inverted": n_gateways_inverted,
"inverted_gateways": inverted,
"n_split_gateways": len(splits),
}


def build_branch_automation_params(
base_json_path: str | Path,
*,
Expand Down
14 changes: 14 additions & 0 deletions evaluation/state_metrics/pipeline.py
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Expand Up @@ -68,6 +68,7 @@
build_gateway_biased_params,
build_perturbed_params,
build_role_swap_params,
build_route_error_params,
)
from src.process_state_prosimos_run import run_basic_simulation
from src.runner import run_process_state_and_simulation
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -846,6 +847,19 @@ def _prepare_params_for_level(
shift=signed,
out_json_path=out_params,
)
elif cfg.perturbation == "route_error":
if level < 0:
raise ValueError(
"route_error levels must be >= 0 (number of gateways inverted)"
)
# level = number of leading XOR splits whose case_type routing is
# inverted (red->short, blue->long) — the model error. The base params
# already route CORRECTLY, so level 0 is a verbatim copy.
manifest = build_route_error_params(
cfg.params_path,
n_gateways_inverted=level,
out_json_path=out_params,
)
else:
raise ValueError(f"unknown perturbation type {cfg.perturbation!r}")
manifest = {"perturbation": cfg.perturbation, "level": level, **manifest}
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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion evaluation/state_metrics/run_pipeline.py
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Expand Up @@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ def main() -> None:
"arrival_burst", "relabel", "rephase",
"mix_ratio", "label_swap", "case_route",
"parallel_auto", "front_back_load",
"case_type_drift"],
"case_type_drift", "route_error"],
default="resources",
help="which perturbation family to apply")
p.add_argument("--remove-from-profile", default=None,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -164,6 +164,9 @@ def main() -> None:
elif args.perturbation == "front_back_load":
# Percentage of duration mass moved toward the chosen chain end.
levels = spec.default_levels
elif args.perturbation == "route_error":
# Number of leading XOR splits whose case_type routing is inverted.
levels = spec.default_levels
else:
levels = spec.default_levels

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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions samples/dev-samples/synthetic_route_error.bpmn
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@@ -0,0 +1 @@
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><bpmn:definitions xmlns:bpmn="http://www.omg.org/spec/BPMN/20100524/MODEL" id="Definitions_route_error" targetNamespace="http://bpmn.io/schema/bpmn"><bpmn:process id="Process_route_error" isExecutable="false"><bpmn:startEvent id="StartEvent_1" name="Start"><bpmn:outgoing>f_start</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:startEvent><bpmn:task id="t_reg" name="Register"><bpmn:incoming>f_start</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_reg_g1s</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:exclusiveGateway id="g1s" name="XOR-split-1"><bpmn:incoming>f_reg_g1s</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_g1s_a</bpmn:outgoing><bpmn:outgoing>f_g1s_b</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:exclusiveGateway><bpmn:task id="t_a1_1" name="Assess_A1_1"><bpmn:incoming>f_g1s_a</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_a1_link1</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_a1_2" name="Assess_A1_2"><bpmn:incoming>f_a1_link1</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_a1_link2</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_a1_3" name="Assess_A1_3"><bpmn:incoming>f_a1_link2</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_a1_g1j</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_b1_1" name="Assess_B1_1"><bpmn:incoming>f_g1s_b</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_b1_link1</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_b1_2" name="Assess_B1_2"><bpmn:incoming>f_b1_link1</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_b1_link2</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_b1_3" name="Assess_B1_3"><bpmn:incoming>f_b1_link2</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_b1_g1j</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:exclusiveGateway id="g1j" name="XOR-join-1"><bpmn:incoming>f_a1_g1j</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:incoming>f_b1_g1j</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_g1j_t_tri1</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:exclusiveGateway><bpmn:task id="t_tri1" name="Triage_1"><bpmn:incoming>f_g1j_t_tri1</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_t_tri1_g2s</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:exclusiveGateway id="g2s" name="XOR-split-2"><bpmn:incoming>f_t_tri1_g2s</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_g2s_a</bpmn:outgoing><bpmn:outgoing>f_g2s_b</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:exclusiveGateway><bpmn:task id="t_a2_1" name="Assess_A2_1"><bpmn:incoming>f_g2s_a</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_a2_link1</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_a2_2" name="Assess_A2_2"><bpmn:incoming>f_a2_link1</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_a2_link2</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_a2_3" name="Assess_A2_3"><bpmn:incoming>f_a2_link2</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_a2_g2j</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_b2_1" name="Assess_B2_1"><bpmn:incoming>f_g2s_b</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_b2_link1</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_b2_2" name="Assess_B2_2"><bpmn:incoming>f_b2_link1</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_b2_link2</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_b2_3" name="Assess_B2_3"><bpmn:incoming>f_b2_link2</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_b2_g2j</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:exclusiveGateway id="g2j" name="XOR-join-2"><bpmn:incoming>f_a2_g2j</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:incoming>f_b2_g2j</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_g2j_t_tri2</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:exclusiveGateway><bpmn:task id="t_tri2" name="Triage_2"><bpmn:incoming>f_g2j_t_tri2</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_t_tri2_g3s</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:exclusiveGateway id="g3s" name="XOR-split-3"><bpmn:incoming>f_t_tri2_g3s</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_g3s_a</bpmn:outgoing><bpmn:outgoing>f_g3s_b</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:exclusiveGateway><bpmn:task id="t_a3_1" name="Assess_A3_1"><bpmn:incoming>f_g3s_a</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_a3_link1</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_a3_2" name="Assess_A3_2"><bpmn:incoming>f_a3_link1</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_a3_link2</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_a3_3" name="Assess_A3_3"><bpmn:incoming>f_a3_link2</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_a3_g3j</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_b3_1" name="Assess_B3_1"><bpmn:incoming>f_g3s_b</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_b3_link1</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_b3_2" name="Assess_B3_2"><bpmn:incoming>f_b3_link1</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_b3_link2</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:task id="t_b3_3" name="Assess_B3_3"><bpmn:incoming>f_b3_link2</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_b3_g3j</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:exclusiveGateway id="g3j" name="XOR-join-3"><bpmn:incoming>f_a3_g3j</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:incoming>f_b3_g3j</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_g3j_t_dec</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:exclusiveGateway><bpmn:task id="t_dec" name="Decide"><bpmn:incoming>f_g3j_t_dec</bpmn:incoming><bpmn:outgoing>f_dec_end</bpmn:outgoing></bpmn:task><bpmn:endEvent id="EndEvent_1" name="End"><bpmn:incoming>f_dec_end</bpmn:incoming></bpmn:endEvent><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_start" sourceRef="StartEvent_1" targetRef="t_reg" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_reg_g1s" sourceRef="t_reg" targetRef="g1s" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_g1s_a" sourceRef="g1s" targetRef="t_a1_1" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_a1_link1" sourceRef="t_a1_1" targetRef="t_a1_2" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_a1_link2" sourceRef="t_a1_2" targetRef="t_a1_3" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_a1_g1j" sourceRef="t_a1_3" targetRef="g1j" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_g1s_b" sourceRef="g1s" targetRef="t_b1_1" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_b1_link1" sourceRef="t_b1_1" targetRef="t_b1_2" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_b1_link2" sourceRef="t_b1_2" targetRef="t_b1_3" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_b1_g1j" sourceRef="t_b1_3" targetRef="g1j" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_g1j_t_tri1" sourceRef="g1j" targetRef="t_tri1" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_t_tri1_g2s" sourceRef="t_tri1" targetRef="g2s" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_g2s_a" sourceRef="g2s" targetRef="t_a2_1" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_a2_link1" sourceRef="t_a2_1" targetRef="t_a2_2" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_a2_link2" sourceRef="t_a2_2" targetRef="t_a2_3" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_a2_g2j" sourceRef="t_a2_3" targetRef="g2j" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_g2s_b" sourceRef="g2s" targetRef="t_b2_1" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_b2_link1" sourceRef="t_b2_1" targetRef="t_b2_2" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_b2_link2" sourceRef="t_b2_2" targetRef="t_b2_3" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_b2_g2j" sourceRef="t_b2_3" targetRef="g2j" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_g2j_t_tri2" sourceRef="g2j" targetRef="t_tri2" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_t_tri2_g3s" sourceRef="t_tri2" targetRef="g3s" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_g3s_a" sourceRef="g3s" targetRef="t_a3_1" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_a3_link1" sourceRef="t_a3_1" targetRef="t_a3_2" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_a3_link2" sourceRef="t_a3_2" targetRef="t_a3_3" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_a3_g3j" sourceRef="t_a3_3" targetRef="g3j" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_g3s_b" sourceRef="g3s" targetRef="t_b3_1" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_b3_link1" sourceRef="t_b3_1" targetRef="t_b3_2" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_b3_link2" sourceRef="t_b3_2" targetRef="t_b3_3" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_b3_g3j" sourceRef="t_b3_3" targetRef="g3j" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_g3j_t_dec" sourceRef="g3j" targetRef="t_dec" /><bpmn:sequenceFlow id="f_dec_end" sourceRef="t_dec" targetRef="EndEvent_1" /></bpmn:process></bpmn:definitions>
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