modelosophy turns centuries of human thinking frameworks into AI Skills an agent can call.

SWOT, first principles, MECE, compound thinking, second-order thinking — each mental model becomes an independent, composable Skill instead of a paragraph in a wiki. An AI agent uses them the way a person would: to break down a problem, build a strategy, or make a decision.

What's here now

This repository is early. There are 373 executable Skills under skills/<category>/ (category READMEs remain the per-domain index; _templates is not a skill).

All 377 Skills in the repository have completed Socratic self-checks, test set creation (>=10 test prompts per skill covering 4 categories with >=2 correctness traps), quick_validate.py structure validation, and independent blind testing, and are fully upgraded to version: v1.0.

Useful fields from an earlier “9-field card” draft (author, misuse, memory hook, …) may be absorbed into executable SKILL.md sections; cards are not the primary deliverable. Plan: ROADMAP.md. Repository-level history: CHANGELOG.md.

Category snapshot (full per-skill blurbs: Skill catalog):

Category	Total	v1.0	v0.x-draft	Index
Business / Org Intel	6	6	0	index
Thinking Models	25	25	0	index
Cognitive Thinking Tools	28	28	0	index
Decision & Probability	24	24	0	index
Learning & Growth	30	30	0	index
Strategy & Competition	30	30	0	index
Efficiency & Execution	30	30	0	index
Systems & Complexity	23	23	0	index
Macroeconomic Theories	30	30	0	index
Microeconomics & Markets	30	30	0	index
Game Theory & Strategy	31	31	0	index
Behavioral Biases	30	30	0	index
Finance & Investing	30	30	0	index
Systems & Classic Effects	30	30	0	index
Total	377	377	0

Skills formerly under Thinking Models have been moved into domain categories in batches (including 25 this round into cognitive / decision / learning / strategy / efficiency / complexity); they are listed only under the new categories.

How it works

A mental model is first named as a pattern (model), then reduced to its operating steps (distill) as a SKILL.md, then called by any agent that reads the skills directory (reuse).

Usage

Each skill lives in its own directory under skills/<category>/<name>/ with a SKILL.md that an agent (such as Claude Code) reads to learn what the skill does and how to invoke it.

git clone https://github.com/HuangChenning/modelosophy.git
# or copy a single skill into your own project
cp -r modelosophy/skills/<category>/<name> your-project/skills/<name>

Skills that generate reports write them to output/<skill-name>/; that directory is local-only and is not tracked in this repository.

Repository layout

skills/<category>/<name>/SKILL.md      what the skill does, when to use it
skills/<category>/<name>/references/   supporting methodology and reference material
skills/<category>/<name>/scripts/      generation or automation scripts, if any
skills/<category>/<name>/assets/       templates the skill renders into

<category> groups domains — e.g. business/, thinking-models/, the six econ/bias/systems categories, plus cognitive tools / decision / learning / strategy / efficiency / complexity.

Skills that render an HTML report follow the shared visual spec in DESIGN.md.

Limitations

The library is still early — 373 executable models across categories (business/ 2 + thinking-models/ 25 + six domain categories 181 + catalog expansion 165, the last of which just reached its ~30/category roster target). Known gaps, stated plainly:

• 100% upgraded to v1.0. All 377 Skills in the repository have completed eval set expansion (>=10 test prompts per skill covering should_trigger, should_not_trigger, edge_case, and >=2 correctness traps), Socratic self-checks, and structure validation.
• All 377 Skills average 10+ eval cases covering 4 types. Every skill includes should_trigger, should_not_trigger, edge_case, and >=2 correctness traps. A full benchmark run across 3,737 test prompts achieved a 99.65% overall pass rate. Note: evals verify triggering and routing precision, not factual accuracy.
• v1.0 is not a content-accuracy guarantee. A 2026-08-19 content audit (three rounds) read all 350 SKILL.md files for factual/logical correctness — full coverage, not sampling — and fixed 50 real issues found on both sides of the version line: mojibake'd formula subscripts, misremembered experiment/citation details, a naming clash between two same-named formulas, self-contradictions between a skill's own steps and its stated boundaries, an unresolved theory conflict between two strategy skills, and — in the v1.0 set specifically — a router skill (munger-misjudgment) whose lookup table pointed at five wrong or missing targets. The underlying lesson stands regardless: blind testing checks triggering, not facts, and neither draft nor v1.0 status should be read as "fact-checked." See ROADMAP.md for the full audit trail.

Conventions may still change as the library grows.

Contributing a mental model

Have a thinking framework worth distilling? Open a PR that adds a new skills/<category>/<name>/SKILL.md following the structure above.

Skill catalog

Per-skill blurbs for all 350 Skills. Category READMEs remain the per-domain index.

Business / Org Intel（1）

Org / IT intelligence and business research.

• org-it-intel-report — Org / IT intelligence report: McKinsey-style org overview plus IT investment & procurement (vendor-neutral).

Thinking Models（25）

General reasoning, leadership, communication (domain-specific items moved out).

• abductive-reasoning — Abductive reasoning: from a surprising observation, generate and pick the best current explanation (IBE), marking what still needs testing.
• contrarian-and-right — Contrarian and right: test unconventional views—outsized insight needs both divergence from consensus and falsifiable correctness.
• counterfactual-thinking — Counterfactual thinking: handle “if only…” mental simulations; separate upward/downward counterfactuals and controllable causes.
• deductive-reasoning — Deductive reasoning: from accepted premises, derive conclusions that must follow by valid rules.
• dual-goal-list — Dual goal list (25/5): write ~25 goals, keep Top 5 as List A, and treat the rest as active avoidance.
• dual-process — Dual process: Kahneman System 1 vs System 2—when to trust intuition and when to force slow thinking.
• emotional-abc — Emotional ABC (REBT): split strong emotion into Activating event, Beliefs, and Consequences.
• five-w-one-h — 5W1H: nail Who/What/When/Where/Why/How slots for an event, need, or task.
• fogg-behavior-model — Fogg behavior model (B=MAP): diagnose why a behavior happens or fails via Motivation×Ability×Prompt.
• gaslighting — Gaslighting: spot manipulation that denies someone’s perception/memory to seize definition of reality.
• hook-model — Hook Model: design habit loops as Trigger→Action→Variable Reward→Investment.
• implicit-premises — Implicit premises: surface unstated premises that carry an argument, then classify and test them.
• johari-window — Johari window: expand the open quadrant via feedback and disclosure to reduce blind spots.
• ladder-of-inference — Ladder of inference: unpack the climb from selected data to meaning, belief, and action.
• local-global-optima — Local vs global optima: ask whether polishing the current path is stuck on a small hill.
• long-term-thinking — Long-term thinking: place decisions in multi-period consequences and incentive cycles.
• maslow-hierarchy — Maslow hierarchy: use need categories as a checklist (not a universal law).
• munger-misjudgment — Psychology of human misjudgment: scan Munger’s tendencies and Lollapalooza stacking.
• negentropy — Negentropy: track how open systems import free energy/information to keep local order.
• process-replication — Process replication: distill success into transferable steps, adapt to local constraints, then scale.
• redundancy — Redundancy: design spare capacity, paths, or copies against single points of failure.
• situational-leadership — Situational leadership: match style to a follower’s readiness (ability×willingness) on a specific task.
• socratic-questioning — Socratic questioning: test a claim by elenchus—questions that surface contradictions—not by assertion.
• spiral-of-silence — Spiral of silence: fear of isolation → misread climate → minority silence → louder majority.
• ten-ten-ten — 10/10/10: pull decisions out of hot emotion by checking ~10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years.

Cognitive Thinking Tools（28）

First principles, structured decomposition, critical thinking tools.

• abstraction-ladder — Abstraction ladder: move deliberately between concrete and abstract wording (≠ ladder of inference).
• analogical-thinking — Analogical thinking: structure-mapping transfer with explicit failure boundaries.
• backward-goal — Backward goal: define a verifiable end state, then plan prerequisites back to today.
• concept-map — Concept map: proposition networks with linking words.
• critical-thinking — Critical thinking: Facione Delphi skills (interpretation, analysis, evaluation, inference, explanation, self-regulation).
• cross-validation-thinking — Cross-validation thinking: corroborate claims via independent evidence paths (≠ ML k-fold).
• decision-matrix — Decision matrix: multi-criteria weighted scoring with sensitivity (probability trees → decision-probability).
• diamond-six-steps — Diamond six steps: two diverge–converge cycles with stage gates.
• first-principles — First principles: strip a claim to hard facts/constraints, then rebuild upward without analogy crutches.
• five-whys — Five Whys: drill a causal chain to an actionable root cause.
• golden-circle — Golden Circle: structure narrative as WHY→HOW→WHAT (purpose before product).
• hypothesis-testing — Hypothesis testing: state falsifiable claims and design contrasting evidence.
• inversion — Inversion: work backward from failure—“how could this go wrong?”—then avoid those paths.
• lateral-thinking — Lateral thinking: provoke jumps out of set patterns, then vertically evaluate.
• logic-tree — Logic tree: decompose a master question into actionable issue/hypothesis leaves.
• mece — MECE: split issues into mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive categories.
• mind-map — Mind map: radial hierarchical association for notes and brainstorming.
• occams-razor — Occam’s razor: among explanations that fit, prefer fewer ad hoc assumptions—then verify.
• octopus-diagram — Octopus diagram: center topic with multi-arm dimension coverage.
• pros-cons-list — Pros and cons list: explicit benefit/cost scan (weighted scoring → decision-matrix).
• pyramid-principle — Pyramid principle: lead with the answer; group supporting arguments MECE under it.
• scqa — SCQA: Situation–Complication–Question–Answer for openings and problem definition.
• six-thinking-hats — Six Thinking Hats: separate facts, feelings, benefits, risks, and ideas in parallel meeting modes.
• star-method — STAR: Situation–Task–Action–Result stories for interviews and reviews.
• structured-thinking — Structured thinking: orchestrate define→decompose→analyze→synthesize.
• theory-of-constraints — TOC: focus improvement on the system throughput constraint.
• thought-experiment — Thought experiment: probe principles in counterfactual setups with explicit limits.
• triz — TRIZ: frame design contradictions and seek non-compromise inventive moves.

Decision & Probability（24）

Expected value, decision trees, Bayesian updating, Monte Carlo, journals/AAR, and other decisions under uncertainty (M2 + M2b batches included).

• after-action-review — After Action Review: intent → actual → gap → next actions.
• asymmetric-payoff — Asymmetric payoff: compare upside/downside shapes, not means alone.
• base-rate — Base rate / reference class: anchor on class frequencies before case details.
• bayesian-updating — Bayesian updating: prior × likelihood → posterior.
• decision-journal — Decision journal: pre-register beliefs/forecasts for calibration.
• decision-tree — Decision tree: multi-stage choices with known options, uncertain outcomes, and estimable probabilities/payoffs.
• expected-utility — Expected utility: choose when money is nonlinear or ruin matters.
• expected-value — Expected value: quantify uncertain outcomes as probability-weighted averages (EV = Σ p·x).
• grey-thinking — Grey thinking: hold revisable confidence instead of binary certainty.
• loss-function — Loss function: asymmetric error costs → action/threshold.
• monte-carlo — Monte Carlo: sample uncertain inputs to get outcome distributions.
• mvp — MVP: minimum artifact that tests the riskiest assumption.
• ooda-loop — OODA loop: observe–orient–decide–act under competitive tempo.
• oz-principle — Oz Principle: Above the Line accountability (See–Own–Solve–Do).
• planning-fallacy — Planning fallacy: correct optimistic schedules with outside view.
• pre-mortem — Pre-mortem: assume failure already happened to surface preventable causes.
• probability-thinking — Probability thinking: define events and speak in probabilities.
• rapid-experimentation — Rapid experimentation: short falsifiable loops with kill criteria.
• red-team — Red team: structured independent attack on a plan.
• reversible-irreversible — Reversible vs irreversible decisions: match process weight to undo cost.
• risk-premium — Risk premium: extra required return above a risk-free baseline.
• scenario-planning — Scenario planning: few divergent futures for robust options and signals.
• sensitivity-analysis — Sensitivity analysis: find flip assumptions and robust regions.
• threshold-effect — Threshold effect: dose/rule cutoffs (≠ tipping-point phase change).

Learning & Growth（30）

Feynman, flow, metacognition, forgetting curve, antifragility, M3 batch (deliberate practice, SRS, growth mindset, deep work, ZPD, 10k-hours), plus batches (retrieval/interleaving/transfer, dual coding, elaborative interrogation, chunking, T-shaped, learning-pyramid caveat, mentorship, learning-by-teaching, meta-learning, unlearning), plus a 2026-08-19 roster-completion batch (habit formation, project-based learning, peer instruction, cognitive load, self-explanation, production effect, sleep consolidation).

• antifragility — Antifragility: design strategies that gain from volatility and uncertainty—not merely withstand risk.
• chunking — Chunking: pack items into named meaningful units to cut working-memory load.
• cognitive-load — Cognitive load theory: keep intrinsic/extraneous/germane load within limited working-memory capacity.
• deep-work — Deep work: protect uninterrupted high-cognitive focus blocks (canonical home; efficiency category cross-links only).
• deliberate-practice — Deliberate practice: train just beyond comfort with goals, feedback, and weak-point focus.
• dual-coding — Dual coding: align verbal and imagistic representations for dual retrieval cues.
• elaborative-interrogation — Elaborative interrogation: ask why a claim is sensible to anchor it in prior knowledge.
• feynman-technique — Feynman technique: expose gaps by teaching a concept in plain language, then repair and retry.
• flow — Flow: diagnose deep engagement when challenge≈skill, goals are clear, and feedback is timely.
• forgetting-curve — Forgetting curve: explain memory decay over time; schedule ops live in spaced repetition.
• growth-mindset — Growth mindset: treat ability as developable; rewrite feedback/goals (not effort-only pep talk).
• habit-formation — Habit formation: automate behavior via stable context cues, not willpower (debunks the 21-day myth).
• interleaved-practice — Interleaved practice: mix confusable categories to improve discrimination and transfer.
• learning-by-teaching — Learning by teaching: use real/simulated teaching tasks to force retrieval and organization.
• learning-pyramid — Learning pyramid (caveat): debunk fake retention %; keep only a weak active-engagement heuristic.
• mentorship — Mentorship: goal–cadence–feedback–fade protocols for apprenticeship.
• meta-learning — Meta-learning: choose and experiment with how-to-learn strategy menus across tasks.
• metacognition — Metacognition: monitor and regulate your own thinking—notice misunderstanding and switch strategies.
• peer-learning — Peer instruction: answer independently, discuss with a disagreeing peer, re-answer, to force conceptual conflict.
• production-effect — Production effect: producing (reading aloud/writing) an item beats passive reading, but only relative to silently-studied items.
• project-based-learning — Project-based learning: extended inquiry into a real problem drives knowledge/skill acquisition in use.
• retrieval-practice — Retrieval practice: active recall (testing effect) to strengthen retention and diagnose gaps.
• self-explanation — Self-explanation: generate inferences not stated in the material to expose and repair comprehension gaps.
• sleep-consolidation — Sleep consolidation: new memories are actively stabilized during sleep, far less efficiently while awake.
• spaced-repetition — Spaced repetition: active retrieval + expanding intervals (SRS/review schedules).
• t-shaped-skills — T-shaped skills: one deliverable depth bar plus conversational breadth bars.
• ten-thousand-hours — Ten-thousand-hours myth check: hours ≠ expertise; redirect to deliberate practice.
• transfer-of-learning — Transfer of learning: design near/far transfer variants and cross-context checks.
• unlearning — Unlearning: retire interfering old knowledge/responses under managed triggers.
• zpd — Zone of proximal development: place tasks between independent and assisted success with fading scaffolds.

Strategy & Competition（30）

Five forces, moats, flywheels, SWOT, blue ocean, second curve, disruption, BCG, GE–McKinsey, 7S, OKR, VRIO, plus batches (Ansoff, BSC, value chain, generic strategies/clock, positioning, platform, RBV/core competence, KPI), plus a 2026-08-19 roster-completion batch (Business Model Canvas, strategy map, dynamic capabilities, Porter's Diamond, Three Horizons, strategic intent) awaiting blind testing.

• ansoff-matrix — Ansoff matrix: existing/new market × product growth paths with rising risk.
• balanced-scorecard — Balanced scorecard: give existing strategic objectives metrics, targets, and initiatives as a running measurement system.
• bcg-matrix — BCG matrix: growth×relative share quadrants for portfolio invest/harvest/exit.
• blue-ocean — Blue ocean: value innovation via ERRC to rebuild buyer utility and cost.
• business-model-canvas — Business Model Canvas: nine blocks describing how an org creates, delivers, and captures value (descriptive, not evaluative).
• core-competence — Core competence: shared hard-to-imitate capabilities that open multiple markets.
• cost-leadership — Cost leadership: structural lowest-cost advantage in a broad market.
• differentiation-strategy — Differentiation: buyer-valued uniqueness and premium via activity-system trade-offs.
• disruptive-innovation — Disruptive innovation: low-end/new-market trajectories vs incumbent incentives.
• dynamic-capabilities — Dynamic capabilities: sensing-seizing-transforming ability to reconfigure resources as environments shift fast — a direct critique of static RBV/VRIO.
• economic-moat — Economic moat: assess whether a firm can sustain excess returns via durable competitive advantages.
• flywheel — Flywheel: design or diagnose accelerating causal loops where each turn strengthens the next.
• ge-mckinsey-matrix — GE–McKinsey nine-box: industry attractiveness × competitive strength for invest/select/harvest.
• kpi-framework — KPI framework: few sharp metrics with owners; watch Goodhart.
• mckinsey-7s — McKinsey 7S: align hard/soft Ss around shared values to diagnose strategy–organization congruence.
• niche-strategy — Niche/focus: narrow arena cost or differentiation with explicit breadth trade-offs.
• okr — OKR: align ambitious objectives with measurable key results (not task lists).
• platform-strategy — Platform strategy: multi-sided markets, network effects, cold start, governance.
• porters-diamond — Porter's Diamond: why a nation/region's industry cluster keeps producing globally leading firms (≠ Porter's five forces).
• porters-five-forces — Porter’s five forces: diagnose industry profit structure via rivalry, entrants, substitutes, buyers, suppliers.
• positioning — Positioning: own a clear, defensible spot in the target mind.
• resource-based-view — Resource-based view: internal heterogeneous resources/capabilities as advantage sources.
• second-curve — Second curve: start the next S-curve before the first peaks; set funding and kill rules.
• strategic-clock — Strategic clock: price × perceived value paths; spot stuck-in-the-middle.
• strategic-intent — Strategic intent: a resource-weak challenger sets a decade-long ambition and uses the gap as a mobilization lever, not a reason to shrink ambition.
• strategy-map — Strategy map: the four-layer objective causal chain alone (no metrics yet) — the deep-dive tool for BSC's step 2.
• swot — SWOT: structure internal strengths/weaknesses × external opportunities/threats, then TOWS matching.
• three-horizons — Three Horizons: manage three maturity-stage businesses/options permanently in parallel, not sequentially (≠ second curve).
• value-chain — Value chain: primary/support activities for cost and differentiation loci.
• vrio — VRIO: audit whether resources are valuable, rare, costly to imitate, and organized.

Efficiency & Execution（30）

Eisenhower, PDCA, M3 batch (Pomodoro, GTD, Kanban, agile, lean, critical path, 5S), plus batches (batching, checklist/SOP, continuous improvement, delegation, eat-the-frog, energy, Gantt, milestones, standup, time-blocking, two-minute rule, WIP limits), plus a 2026-08-19 roster-completion batch (meeting hygiene, single-tasking, task-switching cost, Inbox Zero, structured procrastination, buffer time, mise en place, weekly review, commitment devices). Deep work lives under Learning & Growth.

• agile-iteration — Agile iteration: short timeboxes delivering inspectable increments, then adapt.
• batching — Batching: group similar tasks to cut context switching.
• buffer-time — Buffer time: pool per-task safety margins into a few strategic buffers, monitored by consumption rate not per-task deadlines (Critical Chain).
• checklist-sop — Checklist/SOP: externalize critical steps to cut omission variance.
• commitment-devices — Commitment devices: bind your future self to an externally-enforced cost while calm, so backing out becomes worse than finishing.
• continuous-improvement — Continuous improvement (Kaizen): small, frequent standard raises.
• critical-path — Critical path: longest dependency chain that sets project duration.
• delegation — Delegation: hand off outcomes and authority with clear follow-up.
• eat-the-frog — Eat the frog: finish the day’s hardest high-leverage task first.
• eisenhower-matrix — Eisenhower matrix: sort work by urgent×important; prioritize important-but-not-urgent.
• energy-management — Energy management: match task type to peak/trough capacity.
• five-s — 5S: sort, set in order, shine, standardize, sustain for workplace/digital hygiene.
• gantt-chart — Gantt chart: timeline bars and dependencies for schedule communication.
• gtd — GTD: capture–clarify–organize–review into trusted next actions.
• inbox-zero — Inbox Zero: not an unread-count target — clearing the mental cycles a pending inbox occupies.
• kanban — Kanban: visualize flow and limit WIP in a pull system.
• lean-thinking — Lean thinking: map value streams and remove waste (Kanban/5S as tools).
• meeting-hygiene — Meeting hygiene: agenda-first, single decision owner, timeboxing, headcount discipline — a verified rule set, not one theory.
• milestone-planning — Milestone planning: few verifiable stage gates for scope/date alignment.
• mise-en-place — Mise en place: get all materials/info/permissions ready before execution starts, avoiding mid-task scrambling.
• pdca — PDCA: Plan–Do–Check/Study–Act continuous improvement loops with explicit measures.
• pomodoro — Pomodoro: fixed focus/break timeboxes (≠ deep-work long blocks).
• single-tasking — Single-tasking: process one task at a time, finishing cleanly before switching, instead of being interrupt-driven.
• standup — Standup: short sync of yesterday/today/blockers.
• structured-procrastination — Structured procrastination: Perry's tongue-in-cheek trick — let avoidance of a big task drive completion of other useful ones; not for real procrastination addiction.
• task-switching-cost — Task-switching cost: switching tasks slows reaction time and raises errors, a cost that persists even with prep time — the diagnostic layer behind single-tasking.
• time-blocking — Time blocking: calendar slices with dedicated purpose.
• two-minute-rule — Two-minute rule: do ≤2-minute actions immediately when clarifying.
• weekly-review — Weekly review: a protected timebox to clear, check, and redirect — usable standalone outside GTD.
• wip-limits — WIP limits: cap in-progress work to expose bottlenecks.

Systems & Complexity（23）

• causal-loop-diagram — Causal loop diagram: polarity-marked reinforcing/balancing loops with delays.
• collective-intelligence — Collective intelligence: diversity, independence, and aggregation design.
• complex-adaptive-systems — Complex adaptive systems: heterogeneous adapting agents, local rules, coevolution.
• delay-feedback — Delay feedback: how lags create overshoot and oscillation.
• dissipative-structures — Dissipative structures: far-from-equilibrium order via fluctuations past a threshold, sustained by ongoing dissipation.
• edge-of-chaos — Edge of chaos: workable zone between freeze and scramble.
• emergence — Emergence: macro patterns from micro interactions, not linear sums of parts.
• fitness-landscape — Fitness landscape: multi-peak search, local optima, jump or reshape.
• fractals — Fractals: cross-scale self-similarity within a stated scale window.
• homeostasis — Homeostasis: sense–compare–actuate regulation around a setpoint.
• iceberg-model — Iceberg model: layer artifacts/behaviors above norms and basic assumptions—don’t only change the waterline.
• leverage — Leverage points: find small interventions with large structural effect (Meadows)—not financial leverage cheerleading.
• multistability — Multistability: multiple attractors and hysteresis.
• network-topology — Network topology: graph metrics and structural interventions.
• normal-distribution — Normal distribution: thin-tailed bell curve; contrast with power laws.
• power-law — Power law: heavy tails and tail-aware strategy; contrast with the normal.
• requisite-variety — Requisite variety: Ashby matching of disturbance vs response menus.
• scale-free-network — Scale-free network: heavy-tailed degrees and hubs; preferential attachment and fragility.
• self-organization — Self-organization: order from local rules and flows without a central blueprint.
• small-world-network — Small-world network: high clustering with short paths via a few long-range shortcuts.
• stock-and-flow — Stock and flow: bathtub accumulation with unit-consistent rates.
• system-archetypes — System archetypes: reusable feedback stories (limits to growth, fixes that fail, …).
• tipping-point — Tipping point: nonlinear phase change near critical mass—state can flip quickly past a threshold.

Macroeconomic Theories（30）

Macroeconomic theories.

• ad-as-model — AD–AS: aggregate demand and supply jointly determine the price level and output.
• austrian-school — Austrian school: subjective value, entrepreneurial discovery, spontaneous order; wary of credit-driven distortion.
• balance-sheet-recession — Balance-sheet recession: after a bubble burst, firms prioritize debt minimization even at near-zero rates.
• creative-destruction — Creative destruction: innovation rebuilds higher productivity by destroying old products, firms, and skills.
• crowding-out-effect — Crowding out: government borrowing may raise rates or bid away real resources from private spending.
• endogenous-growth-theory — Endogenous growth: knowledge, human capital, and innovation investment make long-run growth an economic choice.
• fisher-equation — Fisher / quantity equation (MV=PQ): money×velocity ≈ price level×output—nominal anchoring intuition.
• impossible-trinity — Impossible trinity: free capital flow, fixed FX, and independent monetary policy—pick at most two.
• invisible-hand — Invisible hand: decentralized choices can coordinate allocation via price signals without a central planner.
• is-lm-model — IS–LM: short-run fixed-price link of goods (IS) and money (LM) markets via the interest rate.
• juglar-cycle — Juglar cycle: ~7–11 year medium business cycle often tied to fixed-capital / equipment investment.
• keynesianism — Keynesianism: when effective demand is weak, countercyclical fiscal/monetary stimulus can lift spending.
• kitchin-cycle — Kitchin cycle: ~3–5 year (often ~40-month) short cycle driven mainly by inventory adjustment.
• kondratiev-wave — Kondratiev wave: alleged ~40–60 year tech–price long cycles; evidence and mechanism remain debated.
• kuznets-curve — Kuznets curve: inequality may rise then fall with development—a hypothesis, not a law.
• laffer-curve — Laffer curve: tax revenue rises then falls as rates go 0→100%; too-high rates can shrink the base.
• malthusian-trap — Malthusian trap: pre-industrial productivity gains often absorbed by population, stalling per-capita rise.
• modern-monetary-theory — MMT: for a sovereign currency issuer, the hard constraint is inflation/real resources—not household-style “tax first.”
• monetarism — Monetarism: inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon; prefer rules over fine-tuned stimulus.
• multiplier-effect — Multiplier effect: autonomous spending can amplify into larger output changes via income–consumption chains.
• okuns-law — Okun’s law: faster growth vs potential usually lowers unemployment (empirical rule, not identity).
• phillips-curve — Phillips curve: short-run inflation–unemployment tradeoff; long run may be vertical at natural unemployment.
• purchasing-power-parity — Purchasing power parity: long-run FX should equalize basket purchasing power across countries (relative/absolute PPP).
• rational-expectations — Rational expectations: agents use available info to anticipate policy, so systematic “tricks” rarely last.
• ricardian-equivalence — Ricardian equivalence: under strict assumptions, debt-financed vs tax-financed spending leaves consumption unchanged.
• solow-growth-model — Solow growth: capital has diminishing returns; long-run per-capita growth rests mainly on exogenous technical progress.
• supply-side-economics — Supply-side economics: raise potential output via production-side incentives (taxes, regulation), not only demand.
• taylor-rule — Taylor rule: set policy rates from inflation gap and output gap systematically.
• tobins-q — Tobin’s Q: market value vs replacement cost of assets; Q>1 favors expansion.
• trickle-down-economics — Trickle-down: claim that gains at the top percolate downward—often weakly evidenced and easily misused.

Microeconomics & Markets（30）

Microeconomics and market mechanisms.

• adverse-selection — Adverse selection: before contracting, the less-informed side disproportionately attracts “bad” counterparties.
• asymmetric-information — Asymmetric information: one side knows critically more than the other.
• barriers-to-entry — Barriers to entry: obstacles that block or delay competitive entry.
• comparative-advantage — Comparative advantage: specialize where relative cost is lowest, then trade for mutual gains.
• consumer-surplus — Consumer surplus: sum of gaps between willingness to pay and actual price.
• diminishing-marginal-utility — Diminishing marginal utility: each extra unit usually adds less satisfaction.
• diminishing-returns — Diminishing returns: with other inputs fixed, extra units of one input eventually add less output.
• economies-of-scale — Economies of scale: long-run average cost falls as output expands.
• economies-of-scope — Economies of scope: producing multiple goods together costs less than producing them separately.
• equilibrium-price — Equilibrium price: market-clearing price where quantity supplied equals quantity demanded.
• externality — Externality: effects on bystanders not reflected in market prices.
• general-equilibrium — General equilibrium: linked analysis where all markets clear simultaneously.
• lemons-market — Lemons market: quality asymmetry can drive bad products to crowd out good ones.
• monopolistic-competition — Monopolistic competition: many firms sell differentiated goods—some pricing power plus intense rivalry.
• monopoly-natural-monopoly — Monopoly / natural monopoly: sole supply; natural monopoly when one firm is the cheapest way to produce.
• moral-hazard — Moral hazard: after contracting, one party changes hidden behavior because they don’t bear full consequences.
• oligopoly — Oligopoly: a few large firms strategically watch each other’s price and output.
• opportunity-cost — Opportunity cost: value of the best forgone alternative under mutually exclusive choices.
• pareto-efficiency — Pareto efficiency: no one can be made better off without making someone worse off.
• perfect-competition — Perfect competition: many small firms, homogeneous goods, everyone a price taker.
• price-discrimination — Price discrimination: charging different buyers different prices for the same-cost good.
• price-elasticity — Price elasticity: how sensitive quantity is to price changes.
• principal-agent — Principal–agent: agents don’t fully act for principals when goals and information diverge.
• producer-surplus — Producer surplus: gap between price and seller marginal cost (or minimum willingness to sell).
• public-goods — Public goods: non-excludable and non-rival; markets often undersupply them.
• signaling — Signaling: costly, observable actions used to prove a hidden type.
• supply-and-demand — Supply and demand: price emerges from both sides, not unilateral will.
• tragedy-of-the-commons — Tragedy of the commons: rival shared resources tend to be overused and depleted.
• transaction-costs-coase — Transaction costs & Coase: with clear rights and low enough costs, parties can bargain externalities; else institutions matter.
• veblen-effect — Veblen effect: higher price raises demand via status/conspicuous signaling.

Game Theory & Strategy（31）

Game theory and strategy models.

• auction-theory — Auction theory: how rules shape bidding strategy and revenue.
• backward-induction — Backward induction: solve from the last move backward to today’s best action.
• bayesian-games — Bayesian games: strategic play under incomplete information and beliefs.
• bounded-rationality — Bounded rationality & satisficing: seek “good enough,” not global optima.
• boxed-pigs — Boxed pigs: the small pig free-rides while the big pig presses the lever.
• centipede-game — Centipede game: rational early stop vs observed cooperation along the path.
• chicken-game — Chicken game: first to yield loses face; mutual hardline crashes both.
• cooperative-games — Cooperative games: how coalitions form and divide the surplus.
• coordination-game — Coordination game: multiple equilibria—players want to match the same one.
• core — Core: allocations no coalition can improve upon for all its members.
• dictator-game — Dictator game: giving when the receiver has no rejection power.
• evolutionary-stable-strategy — ESS: an evolutionarily stable strategy that resists invasion by mutants.
• folk-theorem — Folk theorem: in infinitely repeated games, cooperation can be sustained under patience.
• game-theory — Game theory (intro): players, strategies, payoffs; dominant strategies; Nash intuition; prisoner’s-dilemma demo.
• hawk-dove — Hawk–dove: evolutionary tradeoff between aggression and yielding.
• matching-theory — Matching theory (Gale–Shapley): stable matching via deferred acceptance.
• mechanism-design — Mechanism design: reverse-engineer rules to achieve a target outcome.
• minimax-theorem — Minimax theorem: optimal defensive value in zero-sum play.
• nash-equilibrium — Nash equilibrium: a stable profile where no one gains by unilaterally changing strategy.
• positive-negative-sum-game — Positive/negative-sum games: cooperation can create surplus; conflict can destroy total value.
• prisoners-dilemma — Prisoner’s dilemma: individually rational moves yield collectively worse outcomes.
• repeated-games — Repeated games: long interaction can sustain cooperation (e.g., tit-for-tat).
• schelling-point — Schelling point: the option people converge on without communication.
• shapley-value — Shapley value: fair division by average marginal contribution.
• signaling-games — Signaling games: informed senders and uninformed receivers contest information.
• stag-hunt — Stag hunt: cooperation pays more but requires mutual trust; safe hare is tempting.
• subgame-perfect-equilibrium — Subgame-perfect equilibrium: refine Nash by eliminating non-credible threats.
• travelers-dilemma — Traveler’s dilemma: chasing individual optimum can make both worse off.
• trust-game — Trust game: first mover risks resources betting on reciprocal return.
• ultimatum-game — Ultimatum game: responders may reject unfair splits even at a personal cost.
• zero-sum-game — Zero-sum game: one side’s gain equals the other’s loss.

Behavioral Biases（30）

Prospect theory, heuristics, and systematic biases.

• ambiguity-aversion — Ambiguity aversion: prefer known risks over unknown probabilities—even when expected value may favor the latter.
• anchoring — Anchoring: first numbers/impressions unduly pull later judgments and negotiation offers.
• attribution-theory — Attribution theory: separate internal vs external explanations of outcomes; watch bias patterns.
• authority-bias — Authority bias: titles, uniforms, or expert aura lower independent verification standards.
• availability-heuristic — Availability heuristic: vivid/recent/easy-to-recall cases mistaken for higher base rates.
• commitment-consistency — Commitment & consistency: small pledges escalate into larger compliance—or help lock better habits.
• confirmation-bias — Confirmation bias: search, remember, and interpret evidence in ways that protect prior beliefs.
• decoy-effect — Decoy effect: an asymmetrically dominated third option steers share between two real options.
• default-effect — Default effect: preset options (opt-in/out) heavily shape choices like donations or privacy.
• dunning-kruger — Dunning–Kruger: low performers often overestimate relative ability; calibrate self-assessment.
• endowment-effect — Endowment effect: mere ownership inflates valuation and blocks trades/rebalancing.
• framing-effect — Framing effect: identical outcomes change choices when worded as gains vs losses.
• gamblers-fallacy — Gambler’s fallacy: believing independent random sequences “owe” a correction.
• hindsight-bias — Hindsight bias: after outcomes, exaggerate how predictable they felt beforehand.
• hot-hand-fallacy — Hot-hand fallacy: treat random or weak streaks as a hot state that warrants chasing.
• hyperbolic-discounting — Hyperbolic discounting: overweight near-term rewards/costs → time-inconsistent plans.
• illusion-of-control — Illusion of control: overestimate influence over random or uncontrollable outcomes.
• law-of-small-numbers — Law of small numbers: treat tiny-sample noise as a stable law.
• loss-aversion — Loss aversion: losses loom larger than equal-sized gains relative to a reference point.
• mental-accounting — Mental accounting: fungible money is split into mental buckets that drive inconsistent choices.
• overconfidence — Overconfidence: overrate knowledge precision, control, or relative rank → oversized bets/plans.
• peak-end-rule — Peak-end rule: remembered experience is dominated by the peak and the ending.
• prospect-theory — Prospect theory: reference dependence, S-shaped value, and probability weighting in risky choice.
• reciprocity — Reciprocity: “give first, then ask” creates return pressure—for defense or fair design.
• representativeness-heuristic — Representativeness: judge probability by “how typical the story looks,” ignoring base rates.
• scarcity-principle — Scarcity principle: limited/urgent/exclusive cues inflate subjective value beyond real constraints.
• social-proof — Social proof: follow “what others do,” especially under uncertainty.
• status-quo-bias — Status quo bias: prefer keeping current arrangements even when switching has higher expected net value.
• sunk-cost — Sunk cost: ignore irrecoverable past outlays when deciding whether to continue.
• survivorship-bias — Survivorship bias: infer success rules only from survivors; failures were filtered out of view.

Finance & Investing（30）

Finance and investing models.

• beta-alpha — Beta / alpha: split returns into factor exposure (β) vs unexplained intercept (α).
• black-scholes — Black–Scholes: European option pricing intuition driven by spot, strike, time, rates, dividends, vol.
• bubble-cycle — Bubble cycle: check leverage, narrative, and valuation stretch by stage—not post-hoc labels.
• cantillon-effect — Cantillon effect: new money/credit benefits early receivers; later ones face higher prices.
• capm — CAPM: expected return = risk-free + β×market premium; separate diversifiable vs systematic risk.
• compounding — Compounding: long-run growth needs reinvested returns × sustainable rate × enough time.
• dcf — DCF: discount future cash flows to today; write CF, discount rate, and terminal assumptions first.
• dividend-discount-model — Dividend discount model: stock as PV of future dividends (Gordon / multi-stage DDM).
• duration-convexity — Duration & convexity: first- and second-order bond price sensitivity to rates.
• efficient-market-hypothesis — EMH: whether prices reflect available information and active outperformance is predictable (weak/semi/strong).
• fama-french-three-factor — Fama–French 3-factor: decompose excess returns into market, size (SMB), and value (HML).
• financial-accelerator — Financial accelerator: asset prices and credit constraints amplify each other.
• fisher-effect — Fisher effect: nominal rate ≈ real rate + expected inflation; keep nominal/real consistent.
• greater-fool-theory — Greater fool theory: buy only to sell to someone willing to pay more.
• investment-clock — Investment clock: map growth×inflation regimes to tactical asset-class tilts.
• kelly-criterion — Kelly criterion: size bets from odds and edge; practice often uses fractional Kelly.
• limits-to-arbitrage — Limits to arbitrage: why mispricing can persist despite “knowing better.”
• liquidity-preference — Liquidity preference: motives to hold money and how they shape interest rates.
• minsky-moment — Minsky moment: stability breeds leverage/speculation until refinancing breaks.
• modern-portfolio-theory — Modern portfolio theory: mean–variance diversification and the efficient frontier.
• momentum-reversal — Momentum & reversal: empirical continuation vs extreme mean-reversion patterns.
• noise-trader-risk — Noise-trader risk: being right can still force losses if irrational flows push prices further.
• pe-pb-valuation — P/E & P/B: relative valuation in comps and historical percentiles.
• rebalancing — Rebalancing: pull weights back to targets on time or band triggers.
• risk-parity — Risk parity: allocate by risk contribution, not by capital weights.
• rule-of-72 — Rule of 72: quick mental estimate of years to double under compounding.
• sharpe-ratio — Sharpe ratio: excess return per unit of total volatility.
• stock-bond-seesaw — Stock–bond seesaw: risk-appetite shifts often move equities and bonds in opposite directions.
• value-premium — Value premium: cheaper valuation portfolios’ long-run average excess (with long drawdowns).
• yield-curve — Yield curve: term structure as a read on expectations, term premium, and macro regime.

Systems & Classic Effects（30）

System dynamics and classic effects.

• barrel-effect — Barrel effect: effective capacity is set by the shortest stave / tightest constraint.
• black-swan — Black swan: rare, high-impact, retrospectively narratable extremes.
• boiling-frog — Boiling frog: gradual harm with baseline numbness (metaphor—use carefully).
• broken-windows — Broken windows: tolerated small disorder signals invite larger disorder.
• butterfly-effect — Butterfly effect: sensitive dependence—tiny initial differences explode in nonlinear systems.
• catfish-effect — Catfish effect: introduce credible competition to wake a stagnant group.
• domino-effect — Domino effect: stepwise cascade along a coupled chain.
• entropy-increase — Entropy increase: isolated systems tend toward disorder; organizational metaphors need clear boundaries.
• feedback-loops — Feedback loops: reinforcing vs balancing polarity and where to intervene.
• free-rider-effect — Free-rider effect: enjoy collective benefits while underpaying—public goods undersupply.
• gray-rhino — Gray rhino: high-probability, high-impact threats already in view but still deferred.
• halo-effect — Halo effect: one salient trait improperly generalizes to overall evaluation.
• hawthorne-effect — Hawthorne effect: being observed itself changes behavior and contaminates causal claims.
• lock-in-effect — Lock-in: switching costs trap users or organizations in a path.
• long-tail — Long tail: when distribution costs are low enough, niche demand aggregates into meaningful volume.
• matthew-effect — Matthew effect: cumulative advantage—the strong get stronger, the weak weaker.
• metcalfes-law — Metcalfe’s law: potential connections in a compatible network grow ~n² with nodes.
• murphys-law — Murphy’s law: what can go wrong eventually will—if chance and exposure suffice; use for poka-yoke.
• pareto-principle — Pareto principle: a minority of causes often drive a majority of results—measure concentration first.
• parkinsons-law — Parkinson’s law: work/org expands to fill available time and headcount.
• path-dependence — Path dependence: historical choices lock future direction via increasing returns and related mechanisms.
• peter-principle — Peter principle: promotion for competence until reaching a level of incompetence.
• projection-effect — Projection: assume others share your model/preferences—mind-reading by default.
• pygmalion-effect — Pygmalion effect: expectations shape treatment, which shapes actual performance.
• ratchet-effect — Ratchet effect: consumption, pay, or standards rise easily and fall hard.
• second-order-thinking — Second-order thinking: ask “and then what?”—consequences of consequences and others’ reactions.
• serial-position-effect — Serial position: primacy and recency make starts and ends more memorable in ordered lists.
• stereotyping — Stereotyping: replace individual evidence with group labels.
• system-dynamics — System dynamics: stocks, flows, delays—dynamic modeling and policy experiments.
• systems-thinking — Systems thinking: climb from events to patterns, stocks/flows, feedback, and leverage points.

---

中文