obs/case b defaultref 260804 h3b - #17
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…a PR with One `.planning/` file, deliberately. A `.planning/`-only diff rotates no Nx task hash, so all five targets stay Case B on the probe run -- which is the shape the pre-registration names. The branch is torn down after the observation, so the file's content is reproduced in the EVIDENCE file.
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Aug 4, 2026
…isfies `e5d3cd3` admitted the default-branch scope to the o3-witness ref allowlist on 2026-08-03, and until now no run had ever matched on it -- every green run, 30896484130 included, matched its own merge ref, which is Case A. Run 30910935382 logged `EXISTENCE OK ... delta=1252s matched_ref=refs/heads/main`. What makes that attributable rather than merely true: the probe PR's base is the FEATURE branch, not main, so base_ref != default_ref and the $baseref arm cannot stand in for $defaultref -- ci.yml:1255-1257 names that duplication as the reason the gap stayed invisible. Both other arms were then measured EMPTY at observation time: the probe's own merge ref holds only its run-id seed, and the base scope holds zero rows of any kind. $defaultref was the only satisfiable arm, so it was the satisfying one. The hash did not rotate either, so outcome (ii) is excluded by measurement rather than by argument. The main window ran 3m30s (12:32:08Z to 12:35:38Z). The advance was FULL GREEN, 26/26, and wrote real Release assets to nx-cache-202608 as disclosed. The restore failed on exactly the two publish legs research Q3 named, at the burned cache-mirror-202608 tag, uploading nothing -- a property that is AUGUST-BOUNDED and recorded as such. main is back at fe25a3f, proven three ways: remote SHA, a docs/cross-os.md 404 whose 200 positive control was taken during the window, and an empty diff against the backup ref. PR #16 never moved: base main, open, unmerged. `gh stack link` worked first try at exit 0, so the exit-9 rollout fallback went unused. Stack #18 unstacked, PR #17 closed rather than merged, probe branch deleted both ends -- nothing this task created survives on the public repo. Both sub-claims CLOSED, reported separately, with the task-1 pre-registration still a byte-exact 159-line prefix of the evidence file.
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